Category Archives: Investment Thoughts

2 Year Chart of DBA, courtesy of Yahoo Finance

Pivot: Rethinking our Exposure to Agricultural Commodities

While it may feel like the IS family fell off the planet, we are actually alive and well. Insanely and unnecessarily busy, but well. The posts have been sparse over the last couple months, and my blogging motivation has been low, but we are doing well. In the near future I’ll write an update about what we’ve been doing, and what’s next, but today’s post is really about just one thing. My latest mistake :) So long as we are alive, we will continue to make mistakes. (Sure beats the alternative, right?!) Well we’ve been directly exposed to agricultural commodities for a couple years now, and I am rethinking the logic behind it. Continue reading

Binary World

We just came up for air, and realized that it’s been two weeks since we last posted on the IncomeSurfer.com. I is my intention to post a minimum of once per week, so I apologize for the delay. Over the past two weeks we have been preparing the house to sell, getting over yet another cold, and trying to move past the loss of friends/family. You’re not hear to read a sob story, so I won’t pour it all out….but with the loss of a kid I helped raise and a colleague……the last few weeks has definitely taken the wind out of our sails. Continue reading

A Chicken In Every Pot

Wild times in the global stock and bond markets over the past week, no?! Bond yields have shot up, with values correspondingly falling. While not nearly as significant as the 2013 Taper Tantrum, the current move is only seven days old. The question is why are those bond yields climbing? Many “experts” say it is because Trump is going to spur growth with tax cuts and infrastructure spending. That is possible, but because the infrastructure program will likely be financed by deficit spending…..it seems likely to me that the rise in bond yields is the result of market participants anticipating a wave of new bond issuance from the US government. Time will tell, but the government will have to pay for all that spending somehow……..and it doesn’t sound like it will be through raising taxes revenue in the foreseeable future. I would suggest that with the new Trump regime, the path forward is even murkier than we typically see with a new president. Either way, it should make for some interesting viewing over the next four years. Continue reading